ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY
|Forecast Parameters||CSU Forecast for 2022||Average for 1991-2020|
|Named Storm Days||90||69.4|
|Major Hurricane Days||9||7.4|
|Accumulated Cyclone Energy+||160||123|
|+A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) for each 6-hour period of its existence.|
CSU released its first extended range forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on 7 April 2022.
We anticipate that the 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity.
Current weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
Source: Colorado State University, 2022 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html)